How in the wide wide world of sports is this even possible?
Turns out the volume of betting laid out on the super bowl has a direct or indirect corolation with the coming state of the economy, so says Rafi Farber in recent article published on calvinayre.com.
Here’s a highlighted excerpt from the article.
“There are three notable things about the data here. First, we saw a peak in regulated Super Bowl betting in 2006, the same year the housing market topped. Second, after that the numbers dragged down slowly through 2008, and 2009 was the huge drop off, for obvious reasons. Then there was a big boom in 2014 followed by the first drop in regulated Super Bowl betting volume since 2008. The last time that happened we were two and a half years away from a major recession, so the numbers could be quite telling this year. Considering the size of the boom though from 2013 to 2014, last year’s drop could simply be noise from any number of factors, but if the drop continues it could mean trouble.”
Farber further writes:
“Betfirm has an even more extensive list going back to 1991, back when the Buffalo Bills began their four year Super Bowl run and missed that field goal at the end to fall to the Giants, probably the team with the most improbable Super Bowl victories of any NFL franchise.
In that list we see again how there was a peak in betting volumes on the game two years before a major crash and recession. It happened in 1998 when John Elway won his first Super Bowl for Denver over Green Bay. Volume peaked at $77.25 million, dropping all the way into 2001 which clocked in at $67.7 million for the Ravens/Giants game. By 2002 the recession was over and volumes jumped back up again. The 2000-2002 bear market didn’t end until September of that year, which is generally when money supply growth starts to recover after typically faltering in the summer. Then again, as we have seen, Super Bowl betting volume surges up again from 2002 to 2006, two years before the next recession, same pattern.”
So maybe my instincts and gut feelings are more accurate than first thought.
This year looks to be the best year, of the next 4-5 years, to sell your real estate. Again it’s my opinion but I’m finding a lot of noise out there on the interwebs that is saying the same thing.
Here’s a link to read Farber’s full article:
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